First, the price trend
Small metal cobalt into the November start another rally, prices continue to refresh a new record high, according to the business community data show that as of November 30 domestic cobalt market average price of 488,333.34 yuan / ton, early price 449,500.00 yuan / ton, slightly month Up 8.64%, up 108.54% from the same period of last year. The price has doubled, and the current price of small metallic cobalt has hit a record high since January 2011.
The index of cobalt for commodities on Nov. 30 was 175.66, up 2.52 points from yesterday. It is a historic high for the period and was up 151.52% from 69.84 points of July 05, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).
Second, market analysis
Products: Cobalt since the beginning of 2017 to start the rally, a slight wave in May callback, in June opened the second wave of gains, the price of cobalt hit record highs, in November the cobalt price is to reach the same price Double the highest price since record (September 1, 2011). Major domestic manufacturers also raised their quotations sharply this month. As of the end of May, the quoted price of Kailike in Jiangsu was 500,000 yuan / ton, up 40,000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, while the price of Jinchuan Group rose to 500,000 yuan / ton, up 5.5 Ten thousand yuan / ton.
By the end of major domestic market Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Co # 1 spot market quoted in the 495000-505000 yuan / ton, the average price of 500,000 yuan / ton, Guangdong Province # 1 in Cobalt offer 488500-491500 yuan / ton (including tax), the average price 490000 yuan / ton, the Shanghai market quoted at 477000-487000 yuan / ton.
As for the industrial chain, the ternary battery with cobalt as the important raw material is the core of the power unit of the new energy vehicles. With the development of the new-energy vehicles and consumer electronics industries, the demand for cobalt is gradually increasing. In accordance with the goals of various countries in the planning of new energy vehicles, by 2020 the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million units, the global cobalt consumption will reach 170,000 tons.
Supply and demand: In 2016, the global metal cobalt production was about 123,000 tons. The world's largest cobalt producer of Congo (DRC) cobalt production 66,000 tons, accounting for 53.58% of global production; Chinese cobalt production capacity of 07,700 tons, accounting for 6.25%, although production ranks second in the world, but in 2016 China's cobalt consumption is about 45,800 tons, an increase of 3.78% over the same period of last year. The demand gap is obvious. Cobalt metal mainly relies on imports. China accounts for 60% of the global cobalt market demand. However, domestic cobalt reserves and output can all be a drop in the bucket. In 2017, no new production capacity has emerged in the world. In 2017, the demand gap of cobalt metal in our country will continue to increase.
International Price: As of November 30 LME cobalt closing price of 66,790 US dollars the day / ton, up from the beginning of 4,798 US dollars / ton, or 7.74%.
Third, outlook outlook
The current supply is tight cobalt market to support the market, new materials and downstream plant is currently no more stock, basic maintenance by a single production, countries around the world to support the development of green economy, increased global shortage of demand for the metal cobalt; but after cobalt prices continue to rise downstream Feelings of high factory emotions, the market continued to rush into the higher risk is expected in December the market rose or slowed down, do not rule out a slight correction may be.
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