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       This year, the metal industry brisk performance. According to the latest report of the World Bank, metal prices are expected to rise by 22% in 2017, while the downward pressure mainly comes from China. With China going to capacity and energy-saving emission reduction depth, how will China affect the price of various types of base metals?

Benedikt Sobotka, chief executive of Eurasia Resources Group (ERG), believes the Chinese government's enforcement of the environmental protection issue is likely to further restrict the supply of scrap and trigger further copper price increases. In addition, he expects aluminum prices to push up to $ 2,500 / t by 2018 as aluminum supplies continue to decline and bauxite, alumina and anode shortages in China.

"China sees cathode copper inventories at their lowest levels in nearly a year, with tight supply of scrap, which means any supply shock could trigger a sudden price rise." Sobotka told Choi Xin reporters that the Chinese government's efforts to address the pollution problem will undoubtedly begin in 2018 The year continues and there is potential for further restrictions on scrap supply.

"Copper fundamentals are the best of the metals in the medium to long term due to the lack of major copper lines, growing demand in the clean energy sector and major infrastructure projects, especially the One Belt and Road initiative, will push copper In the coming years there will be a substantial market supply gap that will result in higher prices, "he said.

Cobalt, which has seen staggering price increases this year, is mainly driven by the rapid expansion of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles. , Cobalt is an important raw material for new energy batteries. As of the end of October, the London Metal Exchange Cobalt prices over the beginning of the cumulative increase of more than 80%. Sobotka predicts that by 2021, the composite annual growth rate (CAGR) of cobalt consumption for electric vehicle batteries will reach 33%.

"Electric mobility is growing exponentially worldwide: all major car manufacturers are planning to launch dozens of new EV models, and even companies that have a vested interest in the oil industry are looking forward to the inevitable turnaround of electric vehicles." Sobotka predicts By 2019, the supply gap in the cobalt market will reach its maximum in a decade.

Among the many base metals, the price of aluminum fluctuated more this year. Aluminum prices rose sharply from mid-June to mid-August, out of a wave of small market. By November, the price of aluminum began to lower and fluctuated for many days, hovering below 16,000 yuan. November 17, Shanghai Aluminum spot contract opened at 17,212 yuan reported 15,425 yuan month, the London aluminum opened 3 2105.00 US dollars.

Sobotka said there could be some surprises in the aluminum market in 2018. At present, China has not made it clear whether this winter's pollution control plan will repeat itself in 2018. After the inventory move, China conducted a wide range of environmental audits and production cuts across the entire supply chain. As a result, the continued dwindling supply of aluminum and the shortage of bauxite, alumina and anodes in China may push aluminum prices up to $ 2,500 / t.

In October, the global commodity prices represented by crude oil and iron ore declined year-on-year, but Sobotka is optimistic about the price of iron ore. He believes that the price of iron ore is now near the basic level and the next 12 months Most of the time iron ore prices will remain at 55-65 US dollars / ton range. "Although steel prices in the winter may remain high, output will decline due to the seasonal strict air pollution control in China, which will affect the demand for iron ore."

Finally, ferrochrome. South Africa's high winter electricity prices this year led to a 50% YoY decline in exports to China in June and July. Coupled with the optimism in the stainless steel market, the price of ferrochromium in China rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the European quarterly benchmark price was set at US $ 1.39 / lb, up more than 26% in the quarter. Sobotka said growth in the demand for key end-products such as consumer electronics, kitchenware and construction will benefit the medium and long-term prospects for chromium and ferrochromium prices. "Nevertheless, in the short term, due to the large amount of ferrochrome returned to the market in South Africa, the increase of chromium ore reserves in China may under pressure prices."

Headquartered in Luxembourg, Kazakhstan's largest mining company, Eurasia Resources Group (ERG), one of the major shareholders is the government of Kazakhstan, with a workforce of approximately 75,000 in Kazakhstan, China, Russia, Brazil and Africa.

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