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Small metal prices are expected



Rare earth: the overall range of shock, the weight of the rare earth trend differentiation



In 2019, due to the uncertain supply prospect of myanmar's ion ore, the market fear is intensified. The price of medium and heavy rare earths rises, while the price of light rare earths continues to fall, thus the price trend of light and light rare earths diverges. If imports from myanmar's mines are halted and ion-type mines in the country are not restarted, prices will rise further.



Tungsten: demand growth slightly, tungsten prices have support



In 2019, the mining quota policy will remain unchanged and environmental protection will not be relaxed. Domestic production of tungsten concentrate will not increase significantly, with an estimated output of 73,000 tons and global production of about 90,200 tons. With the increase in cemented carbide output, China's tungsten consumption is expected to increase to 51,000 tons in 2019, and global consumption will increase by 3.6% to 95,000 tons. In general, the global supply of tungsten is stable and the demand increases slightly, which supports the price of tungsten. The average price of domestic tungsten concentrate in 2019 is expected to be 100,000 yuan/ton, and APT price is 160,000 yuan/ton.



Molybdenum: supply appears gap, price rises slightly



According to the construction project, the global molybdenum production is expected to be at 268,500 tons in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. China produced about 95,000 tons of molybdenum, up 3.7 percent. Global molybdenum demand growth is expected to reach 3.5% in 2019. Domestic real estate demand for molybdenum is weakening, infrastructure, manufacturing, automobile, oil and other industries will become the main driving force of molybdenum consumption, and domestic demand for molybdenum is expected to grow by about 3% in 2019. In 2019, there may be a supply gap in the global molybdenum market. The average price of molybdenum oxide in the international market is expected to be $12.6 / lb, up 5.63% year on year. Domestic molybdenum concentrate average price in 1810 yuan/ton, or about 5%.



 

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