Development and prediction analysis of tungsten industry in China in 2017-2021

       I. favorable factors

(1) the pace of adjustment of product structure has been quickened, and the concentration of industries has been improved

Significant progress has been made in the integration of tungsten resources, and the development and utilization of tungsten ore resources have continued to be large-scale, intensive and standardized. The demonstration base of comprehensive utilization of regional economy to support the project, integration of resources, mining resources and project resources to replace the central, increase; smelting project investment to the technology and equipment of advanced technology, environmental protection, development of high-end tungsten products gradually increased, high performance hard alloy bars, NC blades and tools and other applications of tungsten terminal project.

(two) rich tungsten deposits and high concentration of tungsten ore;

According to the 2015 Geological Bureau of the United States statistics, China's metal tungsten reserves of 1 million 900 thousand tons, accounting for 57% of the total reserves of the world, tungsten reserves are mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, Hunan and two provinces, accounting for 59.2% of the country. The rich tungsten reserves provide basic resources support for the industrial upgrading of tungsten industry in china.

Two, adverse factors

(1) excess supply of raw tungsten and the contradiction of excess production capacity;

China's original tungsten overdraft phenomenon has always existed, leading to the situation of oversupply of tungsten in China. In 2014, the supply of raw tungsten exceeded 14 thousand and 700 tons, and in 2015 it was 13 thousand tons. As of the end of 2015, China's tungsten powder production capacity of 76 thousand and 200 tons, cemented carbide production capacity of 43 thousand and 100 tons, tungsten production capacity of 35 billion meters, for the production capacity of 30 thousand tons, capacity utilization rates were 49.48%, 61.48%, 39.14% and 20.67%. The low level of blind duplicate construction, resulting in the current situation of the industry structure unbalance, overcapacity, increasing environmental pressures, competitiveness is not strong, the industry in the development of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable highlights the deep-seated problems and structural contradictions.

(two) the strict attitude of environmental regulation has a depressing influence on the supply of raw tungsten

The environmental protection industry as the focus of government work, "13th Five-Year" state should focus on the development of emerging industry and green industry, environmental supervision is a hitherto unknown large impact of tighter environmental protection on tungsten supply will produce oppressive. For example, in 2017, the government of Hunan held that the mining market in Hunan was in the doldrums, and the more waste it used, the more waste it would make. To continue to further promote the integration and development of mineral resources in order to rectify, and intensify the crackdown on ultra deep cross-border disorderedmining and other illegal activities, the safety hazards prominent, serious environmental damage, backward production technology of mine to be shut out. The government's attitude towards strengthening control will have a certain pressing influence on the future development of tungsten industry.

(three) the innovation ability of tungsten industry in our country is not strong, and the technical content and added value of our products are low

China's tungsten industry is still in the world tungsten industry chain in the low-end, R & D investment, the level of research and development capacity, technology and equipment level, market competitiveness and profitability of enterprises, and product technology, quality, marketing and service compared with the international advanced tungsten enterprises there is a big gap. Mainly displays in: one is the production process of digitization, automation and intelligence, enterprise information management, and product specialization, industry chain, technology innovation deepened integration, market globalization and talent level is low; the two is business oriented, production, learning and research, science and technology innovation mechanism with the combination is not perfect, less investment in research and development, the lack of talent, high-end technology research and development capability is weak; the three is the cutting-edge technology and key areas of tungsten deep processing is a major breakthrough, the original core technology achievements less, products are mainly in low-end, high-end manufacturing industry can not meet domestic demand, high performance and high precision and high grade cemented carbide CNC blade and high technology content and high added value of tungsten products still need to be imported from abroad.

Investment advisor forecast production of tungsten concentrates in China in 2017-2021 years

In 2014, China's tungsten concentrate production was 138 thousand tons, an increase of 0.77%. Production in 2015 was 112 thousand tons in 1-10 months, an increase of 1.75%

Based on the above factors, we expect that China's tungsten concentrate production will reach 147 thousand tons in 2017, and the average annual growth rate will be about 0.97% in the next five years (2017-2021), and the output will reach 153 thousand tons in 2021.

Based on the above factors, we expect that China's tungsten metal consumption will reach 46 thousand tons in 2017, and the average annual compound growth rate is about 3.94% in the next five years (2017-2021), and the consumption will reach 54 thousand tons in 2021.