Analysis on Demand of China 's Cobalt Industry in 2017

       

First, the policy boost, new energy car sales are still hot.

1.Cobalt downstream application: ternary battery to become the main.

Power battery has become the largest downstream application of cobalt ring. In the application of lithium batteries, cobalt is mainly used for lithium cobalt oxide battery (LCO), nickel cobalt cobalt aluminate battery (NCA) and three yuan battery cathode material (NCM), which is mainly used in the field of consumer lithium battery, Ternary batteries for the field of consumer electronics and power batteries. At present cobalt battery applications are still mainly lithium cobalt oxide, but with the development of new energy vehicles popular, ternary material is expected to become the burst of demand for cobalt.

Since 2016, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is more stringent, the introduction of slope reduction system, but that policy changes will help accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles market, standardization, to avoid the industry into a long-term dependence on the plight of subsidies. At the same time, the national and local policies gradually introduced to the end of the new energy vehicles to ensure the continuity of the promotion. So that the sales of new energy vehicles will still return to a higher level of growth, pulling the demand for cobalt.

The current high-energy density ternary material is the trend of power batteries. Through the study of new energy vehicles in 2017 to promote the use of recommended models directory, found that the battery system in the proportion of ternary materials in the upgrade. Which uses three yuan battery passenger car 149, accounting for 73.4% of the total number of passenger cars; special vehicles in the use of ternary batteries have 307, accounting for 664% of the total number of special vehicles; at the same time, since 2017 , The Ministry of Industry and the release of the three yuan battery in the application of restrictions on the bus, and the bus has been announced in the country five batches of new energy vehicles to promote the use of models directory 1115 models, accounting for 62.57%. With the ternary material to further enhance the stability of the application of the proportion of passenger cars is expected to rapidly increase the proportion of three.

Second, the mine production capacity is fixed, supply and demand pattern reversed

1.Large-scale mine production, reduce mine

China is a major producer of cobalt smelting, but the lack of reserves of resources, accounting for only 1.1% of global cobalt reserves (80,000 tons). Congo (gold) reserves for the world's first, to 47.89%, is also China's leading importer of cobalt ore. Cobalt is divided into four kinds: copper and cobalt ore, nickel cobalt ore, arsenic cobalt ore and cobalt pyrite, cobalt as associated metal. With the recent years, copper, nickel and other metal prices down, mine production or cut-off events frequent, cobalt production growth rate fell significantly, or even negative growth. While the recent cut in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (gold) also reduced the total supply of cobalt ore. Catching refers to the cobalt content of 3-20% of the sulfide ore, the past Congo (gold) each year about 1.4-1.5 million tons of cobalt metal for the grasp of the mine, and the supply of the mine also caused the cobalt market A certain impact. In 2016, Amnesty International opponents of the human rights issue of mine exposure, triggering global attention. Congo (gold) also in 2016 to vigorously rectify the problem of grasping the mine, leading to a serious decline in the supply of mining, is expected to lead to the supply of global cobalt concentrate shrink.

2. New capacity is limited

As the cobalt price in the 2016Q4 long before the downturn in the state, overseas mining giant re-production is not high. Followed by cobalt as an associated mine, the resumption of production depends more or less on the price of copper, nickel, so the rise in cobalt prices can not effectively promote the mine production. 2017 - 2018, large-scale mines put into operation less, so the new capacity is limited